Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire

The Democratic primary season began with the disastrous Iowa caucus, which left the country in the dark for several days about the results. The controversy was mainly due to an app that was supposed to be used to post and calculate the results, but ultimately failed. Right now, Iowa is in the process of a complete recanvassing of the results, per the request of DNC chairman, Tom Perez, who said, “It was simply unacceptable. It is why I called for an independent review of the decisions and processes that lead to this failure.” 

Super Tuesday takes place only three days after South Carolina where 1,357 of the 3,979 pledged delegates are allocated.

This debacle not only led to the resignation of the Iowa Democratic chairman, but it also called into question the long tradition of state caucuses, and the integrity and competence of the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee. The consensus is that the Iowa caucus led to a virtual tie between former South Bend mayor, Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. While Sanders won a few thousand more votes than Buttigieg, the former South Bend mayor is currently receiving 13 Iowa state delegates to Sanders’ 12. 

Fortunately, a clear winner was announced the night of the New Hampshire primary, much to the relief of the Democratic Party. Bernie Sanders was declared the winner in New Hampshire with Buttigieg following close behind. 

To the surprise of many, Amy Klobuchar was the only other candidate to receive delegates in the New Hampshire race by collecting about 20 percent of the vote. Her meteoric rise in the days leading up to the primary can largely be attributed to her stellar debate performance and strong grass-roots organizing. While the mainstream media focused more on Klobuchar’s ascent and the state of what seems to be a muddled race, patterns have begun to emerge that will help us gage how the rest of this primary season could unfold. 

For starters, we must acknowledge the complete collapse of Joe Biden, who was once seen as the front-runner in the race and the best opponent to take on Trump. Since the first two contests, where the former VP finished 4th and 5th, Bernie Sanders has overtaken him as the candidate to beat based on a number of metrics. Sanders now leads in national polls, followed by Biden, Bloomberg and Warren, he is projected to win the next state, Nevada, and has a much more diverse coalition compared to his strongest competition so far, Pete Buttigieg, who is polling at 4 percent with African Americans. 

Looking back at past Democratic primaries, there has never been a candidate that has won the most votes in both Iowa and New Hampshire and not gone on to win the nomination. Although this sounds good for Sanders, there are other factors to consider as well. First off, because of the failure of the Iowa caucus, there is no clear winner in the state, which gave the media a hard time deciphering its significance. 

Secondly, Buttigieg saw the biggest bounce post-Iowa, which resulted in the lowest percentage in history for a winner in New Hampshire. Sanders won with only about 26 percent of the vote in a very crowded field and received 9 delegates. Buttigieg also amassed 9 delegates with about 24 percent of the vote, while Klobuchar received 6 delegates.

Another concern for Sanders and the crowded moderate lane is the unprecedented campaign of former Republican mayor of New York City, Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg is worth over $60 billion and has already spent over $350 million in advertisements, which have flooded television, radio, and social media outlets. 

Many critics of his campaign have accused Bloomberg of attempting to buy the election, which seems to be working since he has climbed to third in national polling without being on the ballot in the first four contests and not having stepped on the debate stage with the other major candidates. 

To put this all into perspective, although the first few states are important indicators for the rest of the race, a candidate must receive 1,990 delegates to win the presidential nomination at the convention's first ballot. FiveThirtyEight puts Sanders at the top with a 2 in 5 chance of securing the nomination, but according to their projection, no one winning a majority of delegates is the second most likely outcome. That means there would be a contested convention, which could spell disaster for a candidate like Sanders who might end up with a plurality of delegates, but the more moderate candidates could unite around one and coalesce their delegates in order to overtake him. 

For now, we look ahead to the Nevada caucus, which will take place this Saturday, Feb. 22. The South Carolina primary will occur a week later on Feb. 29, where Joe Biden still holds a slight lead over Sanders. Super Tuesday takes place only three days after South Carolina where 1,357 of the 3,979 pledged delegates are allocated.

Cover photo: Wikimedia Commons