The Significance of Swing States

When tensions run high, prominent swing states can help determine the fate of the election. Photo by Elizabeth Baumgardner '25

During the 2024 election season, we’ve all seen the term “swing states.” Whether we’ve seen the phrase in an article or heard about it on the news, the term is thrown around quite a lot. But what exactly is a swing state, and are swing states really that important?

When it comes to the election, they’re crucial.

By its very definition, swing states are those in a presidential election that could be won by either candidate. In the 2024 presidential election, there were seven swing states. Those include: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Each state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on its number of representatives in the U.S. Congress, not by national popular vote. Whereas most states are either solid red or blue, swing states are more unpredictable. A swing state is one where the Electoral College could be Democrat or Republican by a very slim margin, usually by a mere few votes. 

Politicians understand how beneficial it is to win a swing state and how it could have a major outcome in an election. In fact, during this year’s presidential election, both the Republican candidate, now President-elect Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, visited and rallied in swing states, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, in an attempt to sway voters in their favor.

Politicians heavily advocate for voters within these seven states to turn up to the polls, since swing states typically have a rather dampened voter turnout. This is usually because voters feel as though their votes matter less than say, a vote from a partisan majority state — states that are solid blue or red, such as New York.

In the 2024 election, Trump winning all the swing states aided him greatly during the election. These swing states comprised a total of 77 electoral votes for Trump, which was huge, and ended up determining the outcome of the election.

Americans saw it before their very eyes on election night, as the power of swing states became incredibly apparent. The presidential election was not nearly as close as many polls predicted it would have been. In fact, many polls predicted that Harris would win in every foreseeable measure, by a significant amount. 

Yet, this was not the case. Trump was able to comprise 312 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win, while Harris received 226. If Harris had won the seven swing states that Trump won, she would have become the first-ever female president.

If there’s one thing we as Americans should take away from these results, whether we are satisfied with them or not, is that swing states can make or break an election, and it is up to the voters in those states to decide to use their vote to change the outcome of the presidential race.