2023 Oscar Predictions and Snubs

Irish Film Institute via Flickr

The 95th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 12, and there is plenty of room for praise and criticism. Like most Oscar ceremonies, there are both some great films being recognized this year and a few questionable decisions made on the part of the academy. Let's examine this year's hits and misses.

First, let’s take a look at best actor in a leading role.

The nominees are: 

Austin Butler for “Elvis,” Colin Ferrell for “Banshees of Inisherin,” Brendan Frazer in “The Whale,” Paul Mescal in “Aftersun,” and Bill Nighy in “Living.”

Paul Mescal is the most surprising nomination, as many thought he wouldn't make the cut. The same can be said in part for Bill Nighy. Strangely, it wasn't since 1935 that all best actor nominees were nominated for the first time. Moving on to Colin Ferrell, I feel that his performance was very similar to his work in the film “In Bruges.” Funny, cutting and deeply sad, Ferrell gave a powerhouse of a performance. 

However, I feel that this award is really down to two options: Austin Butler and Brendan Frazer. Both actors gave incredibly different performances. While Butler's portrayal of Elvis Presley left audiences in astonishment, Frazer broke moviegoers down in one of the most tear-jerking and realistic performances of the last few years. My guess for best actor has to be Austin Butler. A crowd favorite, Butler may not have had as much technical ability as Frazer but makes up for it in a hypnotizing show that lives up to the king of rock.

The nominees for best actress are:

Cate Blanchett for “Tár,” Ana De Armas for “Blonde,” Andrea Riseborogh for “To Leslie,” Michelle Williams for “The Fablemans,” and Michelle Yeoh for “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once.”

Initially leaving the theater for “The Fablemans,” I had no doubt in my mind that Michelle Williams would be winning best actress this year. However, Cate Blanchett in “Tár” floored me. The dozens of small things that Blanchett did in her performance combined with the bigger choices made created a fascinating character.. My prediction for best actress is Cate Blanchett. 

And now for the most important award of the night: best picture.

A great year for movies has led to a very competitive year at the Academy. The best picture nominees are: “All Quiet on The Western Front,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Tár,” “Avatar 2: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “The Fablemans,” “Elvis,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “Women Talking.” What a mouthful.

Over the years, the Oscars have allowed the number of best picture nominees to grow slightly, but now it has officially gotten out of hand. There are ten movies nominated for best picture this year and many could have easily been taken off the list. “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Women Talking,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” are not necessary to have in this category. My prediction for best picture is “Elvis.” The academy loves a good biopic and “Elvis” is one of the best in recent memory. After “Elvis” the next best films are “The Fablemans” and “Tár.” All three of these films are among the best of the year and are fantastic works that deserve best picture. 

Finally here are the year's biggest snubs and general thoughts.

There has not been a bigger snub in quite a while than the masterpiece that is Damien Chazelle's “Babylon.” Excellent in all categories, “Babylon'' tells the story of three different characters working in early Hollywood and their eventual fall from grace in this over three-hour-long epic. It is astounding that this film is not a best picture nominee, let alone the fact that it is nominated for no major categories. 

Many movie fans felt that Baz Luhrmann was snubbed as a nominee for best director as his iconic style was felt throughout the entirety of “Elvis.” “The Whale '' surprisingly is a best picture contender which may prove to hurt Brendan Frazer’s chances of winning best actor. 

However, the most shocking turn of events for this year's Oscars is the reception of “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Surpassing “The Godfather” for nominations, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has proven to be a fan favorite not only at the box office but in the hearts of the academy. This is a strange result considering this film is one of the weakest films to be nominated in years. Shot like a Youtube video, written at a student level and with all the subtlety of a high school PSA, this film is an anomaly of filmmaking.