Sleighing to the Iowa Caucus

With only two weeks to go before the Iowa Caucus, the Democratic Primary is still very much up for grabs. Although it increasingly looks to be a two-way race between former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, there is still hope for Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. If one of them can beat out both frontrunners in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, the tides will certainly shift. This could also be to the advantage of Biden, who can capitalize on a weaker than expected Sanders showing, which would bode well for the former Vice President on Super Tuesday in March. 

After the last debate before Iowa, most people expected candidates to come out swinging, but that did not really come to fruition. Candidates seemed to play it safe in fear of looking divisive, which has hurt candidates in the past like Julian Castro and Kamala Harris, who both went after Biden on the debate stage and have since dropped out. 

It should also be noted that because of the format of a caucus in Iowa, candidates do not want to alienate other candidates’ supporters. The nature of a caucus means that without 15% support, Iowans would have to commit to a second choice. For example, since Sanders is the second choice for the majority of Biden and Warren supporters, he would not want to go after them aggressively, in fear of losing potential supporters in a second round. 

Although Sanders was able to call Biden out on his role in pushing for the Iraq War, the most notable, and yet, least substantive exchange on the debate stage, came between Sanders and Warren. Two days prior to the debate, CNN dropped a story that came out of the Warren camp, alleging that Sanders told her in a one-on-one meeting in 2018 that a woman could not win the presidency. If that sounds ludicrous to you, it should. Sanders is on camera saying a woman could be president in the late 1980s, when most of this country thought that was inconceivable and when Warren was still a Republican. Sanders even encouraged Warren to run for president in 2016 and only jumped into that race when she refused to do so. Three weeks out from the Iowa Caucus and polls showing Sanders’ increasing support, this cheap shot on her strongest ally in the race, reeked of desperation. 

Sanders is well positioned to win Iowa and New Hampshire, which could catapult him to a win in Nevada and a close race with Biden in South Carolina. Sanders raised over $34.5 million in the last three months of 2019, beating out the next highest candidate, Pete Buttigieg, by almost $10 million. 

Not only does Sanders have the war chest to compete in every state, supplied solely by small-dollar donors, he also has the largest grass-roots movement. According to polls, Sanders also boasts the highest net favorability of any Democratic candidate, the most enthusiastic supporters, the most support from independents, young, Latinx and working class voters. In my mind, after already showing that he can win the Rust Belt states in 2016, which cost Clinton the election, Sanders’ diverse coalition is ready and able to beat Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. 

This is not to discount the other candidates in the race, who I believe can oust the most dangerous and corrupt president in the modern history of the United States. That is to say, if and when the Senate chooses to acquit President Trump in the impeachment trial that is now officially underway. 

Biden and other more moderate candidates are attractive to voters because they offer a return to normalcy and a continuation of Obama’s legacy that was dramatically undercut by the Trump administration. On the other hand, Bernie is offering a movement by and for the working class by promising to eliminate depressive student and medical debt, raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hr, bringing us up to the standard of many industrialized countries by offering universal healthcare and free public college, and of course, a Green New Deal that properly addresses the threat of climate change and transforms our economy and infrastructure to be well-positioned for a carbon-free future.