Marist Poll Surveys National Opinion on 2024 Presidential Candidate

The Hancock Center is the home to the Marist Institute of Public Opinion. Credit: Marist Heritage Project

The Marist Institute of Public Opinion (MIPO) released a poll depicting where the top three 2024 presidential hopefuls stand one year from the 2024 election. The poll predicts a re-match between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s polling numbers create a hypothetical three-way match-up. 

“It was assumed that Kennedy would draw more from Biden than Trump, so at that point, FOX was singing his praises,” director of the MIPO Lee Miringoff said. “FOX then became aware that the poll numbers showed that Kennedy is drawing evenly from, or even more from, Trump’s base, and FOX changed their tune.”

Kennedy initially entered the presidential race as a Democrat but switched to the Independent Party in October, leaving polling analysts scrambling to see how such a decision would impact the election.

On Oct. 11, the poll found that when only Biden and Trump were given as an option, 49% of voters would vote for Biden, with 46% voting for Trump. However, 16% of voters switched to support Kennedy in a three-way match-up. Biden’s support fell to 44%, but Trump’s support fell to 37%, giving Biden a 7-point lead over Trump. 

Although Kennedy’s support is likely to fall, snatching even a few votes from either candidate will still significantly impact the outcome of the election, Miringoff explained.

In the next few months, the Poll will analyze where battleground states are leaning, specifically Ohio, Montana and West Virginia. It is also imperative to pin down who college-educated voters are supporting. 

“There is a predictability to our politics now – knowing red states, blue states and swing states – but then events show up and change the context of our election,” said Miringoff. “We have seen a couple of big things, like COVID-19 and the war, that grab the attention of the entire country.”

According to Miringoff, the general public will begin to pay more attention to the politicians within the two weeks leading up to election day. Polling sites comparable to MIPO have all surveyed a similar 40% support for both Biden and Trump. 

Although the age of both candidates and the number of Trump’s indictments is unprecedented, MIPO is asking questions similar to the previous elections to look for trends in the data. Miringoff is looking for patterns in battleground states specifically, but also between generations and by education level. 

The poll did help Miringoff identify who the “weak dislikers” are turning towards. Even voters who may not wholly support either Biden or Trump are still likely to vote for either respective candidate because Biden and Trump both stand for the larger issues like the Supreme Court and evolving democratic values. Another unpredictable aspect of the election the poll helped to bring to attention is a group Miringoff identified as “double-haters.” The group is anti-establishment and helped Trump get elected in 2016. They faded from prominence in 2020, but the poll found that they have returned for the 2024 election. 

Miringoff believes it is much too early to call the election because of how many unknown factors could impact the election. 

“To take the polls now and analyze where we will be in a year is not the wise thing to do,” said Miringoff. “There is so much intensity from politics today. There is never a guarantee.”