Polling in Times of Crises
From left to right: Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff, Barbara Carvalho, and Jay DeDapper. Courtesy of Marist College.
The Marist Alumni Office held a virtual event in conjunction with the Marist Poll called, “Polling in Times of Crises.” The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff, Barbara Carvalho, and Jay DeDapper addressed the current crises taking place at home and abroad as well as the public opinion surrounding current events.
Speaking about the major crises at the moment, the Marist Poll Directors addressed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation, COVID-19, and the culture war occuring in the United States. In addition, Miringoff provided insight into the 2022 midterms for both parties.
“At home, after a post State of the Union bounce, Joe Biden seems to have settled back down into the low forty’s for an approval rating,” Carvalho said. “What should probably be more of a concern to Biden is that only 18% of Americans strongly approve of the job he is doing, while 38% strongly disapprove of the job he is doing as President.”
Since the war in Ukraine started, Biden’s approval rating has seen a gradual increase. On the handling of Ukraine, more Americans approve of the job Biden is doing than disapprove. Yet, on the handling of Russia, more Americans disapprove of the job Biden is doing than approve.
At home, the most important issue facing Americans is the economy. Americans are deeply concerned with the economy because of the high rate of inflation. The Marist Poll asked if people in their community were economically better off than they were a year ago and 51% said they were worse off. Based on the statistical evidence of the economy from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, that is empirically impossible.
“What people see and feel versus what the hard data says is a very different thing,” DeDapper said. “I’m really interested to see whether people's perception of the economy begins to align more with the numbers or if that one number, inflation, continues to drive a negative perception of what is otherwise a really strong economy.”
While inflation is at the forefront of Americans minds at the grocery store and the gas pump, the pandemic is no longer a major concern according to recent public opinion polls. Looking at data from the Marist Poll, 55% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of COVID-19. However, preparing for future pandemics or waves may be difficult because tolerance for mask mandates, business closures, and virtual school all are very low.
“Americans believe the pandemic is behind us,” DeDapper said. “Whether that's true or not, they believe it.”
The other crisis facing the United States is the partisan divide and culture clash. According to Carvalho, Americans are divided on issues of abortion, democracy, LGBTQ+ rights, education, and racial justice. As states began to enact their own laws on cultural issues, the partisan divide continues to deepen. Looking at the state of democracy in an NPR/Ipsos poll, seven in ten Americans say the country is in crisis and at risk of failing.
Looking ahead to the 2022 midterms, Democrats are in a difficult position. According to Miringoff, the sitting president’s party does not typically do as well as the opposing party. It will be easier for the Republican party to rally their base for the midterm elections because the majority of their supporters are dissatisfied with the Democratic majority in Congress.
“Most of our history, people were ticket splitters meaning they voted for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents,” Miringoff said. “The situation has changed dramatically, the red states have gotten redder and the blue states have gotten bluer.”
Since all politics have become nationalized, Biden has a large impact on the turnout and votes for the midterm election. There are a variety of factors and unknowns going into the midterm elections, but if history repeats itself, it is likely that Republicans will flip Democratic seats in Congress.