Marist Poll’s Success in the Midterms

Young woman polling in phone room. Photo by Tima Miroshnichenko via Pexels

The 2022 Midterms are in the past and the Marist Poll proved to be one of the most successful polling organizations with its accuracy. In the final battleground state polls, the Marist Poll went six for six in predicting the correct winner of each race. 

“The reason this was the best year for us was because our numbers were close and we used new methodologies,” Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff said. 

On November 8, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were on the ballot. According to NBC News, Democrats retained control of the Senate with 50 seats to Republicans 49. However, Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives with 221 seats to Democrats' 213. In the gubernatorial elections, Democrats claimed 24 seats while Republicans took 26. 

“While polls are not intended to be predictive, when done scientifically, they can provide a sense of the outcome when carried out in the final days of the campaign,” a Marist Poll press release said.

For the first time ever, the Marist Poll used a combined methodology approach with landline calling, text-to-web, and an online panel. Prior to the midterms, they mainly used a dual-framed approach with telephone surveys to speak with Americans. 

The landline methodology is a traditional form of polling that has been used by the Marist Poll since its founding in 1978. The Marist Poll calls both landline and mobile phones by using a  random-digit-dialing (RDD) sample of telephone households in their targeted calling area.

Prior to the midterms, the Marist Poll adopted text-to-web surveys which is a new polling methodology for them. Since most Americans only use cell phones and often ignore calls from anonymous numbers, the text-to-web methodology provides an alternative way for people to share their opinions with pollsters. 

The Marist Poll added a third methodology with the implementation of an online panel. An online panel is a sample of people who agree to complete surveys on the Internet. Since people are spending increasing amounts of time online, these panels are successful in garnering more respondents. Using all three methodologies, the Marist Poll saw one of their most successful polling cycles for the midterms. 

“Editorially, you want to get the right winners,” Miringoff said. “You have to believe in your numbers as a pollster because you’ve got nothing else.”

In the final days leading up to the election, the Marist Poll team was busy. Between the nearly 200 student workers, researchers, and interns, the team was collecting data on key battleground states. They polled in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, New York, and Texas. In all eight of those states, the Marist Poll’s data projected the correct winner. 

“The Marist Poll’s accuracy in its final battleground state polls validate the important notion that scientifically rigorous and methodically sound public opinions polls effectively communicate the narrative underlying these pivotal races,” a Marist Poll press release said. 

Despite being an outlier poll for states like Pennsylvania, Mirrignoff remained confident in their data. Although many people were surprised that a Republican red wave didn’t sweep the country, the Marist Poll’s data was accurate in predicting the outcome of many close races.

“Pennsylvania was up one or two points and we were looking like the outlier, but we turned out to be one of the closest ones,” Miringoff said.

One of the most important aspects of polling for Miringoff is being open with the public and media. Polling can seem complicated and people don’t always understand the scientific rigor that is involved behind the scenes. By explaining the methodologies used at the Marist Poll, Mirignoff hopes to continue to build the public’s trust in polling organizations. 

“If you’re a good poll, you’re transparent,” Mirignoff said.