Trump Indictment– Boosting or Hurting Trump’s Campaign for President?

Donald Trump

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_(24824456421).jpg author Marc Nozell from Merrimack, New Hampshire, USA

Former President Donald J. Trump has flooded the news after he was indicted for paying off an adult film actress during his campaign. Dr. Melissa Gaeke, professor of political science and Director of the Center for Civic Engagement and Leadership, weighed in on Trump’s indictment and the recent news coverage’s impact on the 2024 election.  

NPR explained how the Constitution does not have any restrictions in prohibiting someone with a criminal record for running for office. “Although Trump is legally allowed to hold office, if Trump is convicted, this brings up the questions of if this would taint his attractiveness, does it challenge his reputation and would the people who might vote for him think of him differently because of this,” Dr. Gaeke asked. “Would the Republican Party think of him differently as being their nominee?” 

According to The Guardian, Trump reported to his advisor that when he appears in court, he would want to be handcuffed and turn it into a spectacle; however, those close to Trump revealed that he was actually anxious about the situation and did not want to appear weak to the public. 

Gaeke believes that Trump’s indictment will give him notoriety. “It's kind of a perverse notoriety, but it's still people talking about him. He has name recognition. I mean, it propels him,” Dr. Gaeke said. “I'm not certain, before this Trump era, we would have ever thought about candidates in this way. I think the easy answer is to say Republicans will say this. Democrats will say that, and I think it's not as clear cut.” 

Trump has been proactive in rallying his supporters around him and began sending out calls to action immediately after he heard about the indictment. “THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE & FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!,” Trump posted Saturday, March 18th on his social media platform, Truth Social. 

Reuters reported that Trump is using his situation to create anger and call his supporters to action by painting his situation as an injustice. Gaeke believes the likelihood of Trump to succeed in twisting the narrative is a true possibility.

“The political climate of the United States has become so polarized, and how you perceive it and whether you buy into one narrative or the other will ultimately guide you in how you feel about this,” Gaeke said. “The answer to the million dollar question really depends on whether Trump is able to continue to use the media to his advantage and make himself out as a victim of the political system and the media and whether his supporters will really stick behind him or see him as someone who is no longer fit for office depending if he is indicted or not.”

A recent poll conducted by YouGov, using a sample of registered voters, found that 53% of people viewed Trump as unfavorable, but 44% still held a favorable opinion of him as a candidate. 

“It is far too early to predict which candidate will win the Republican nominee as of now,” Gaeke said. “As the indictment develops and the primaries approach, it may be more clear.”