Pope Francis Hospitalized With Illness, Raising Concerns About His Successor

With recent reports on Pope Francis' health, many wonder what is next for the Catholic Church and its leadership. Photo by Ashwin Vaswani on Unsplash

On March 3, Pope Francis suffered two episodes of acute respiratory insufficiency. Since Feb. 14, the pope has not left Rome’s Agostino Gemelli Hospital. What started as a slight fever has progressed to a complex combination of lung problems, including bronchitis and pneumonia. 

“The prognosis remains guarded,” The Vatican stated.

These diagnoses would be difficult for any 88-year-old, but Pope Francis also bears the responsibility of leading the Catholic Church. His condition appears to be stabilizing, but if the pope were to die or resign, what would happen?

Immediately after the loss of a pope, there would be no immediate successor, no “vice-pope” to lead the Catholic Church in the interim. Instead, power transfers to the College of Cardinals, 252 officials from across the world who were hand-selected by the current or past papacy. 

The cardinals hold meetings called general congregations, where they discuss funeral arrangements for the deceased pope and the state of Catholicism and prepare for the election of the new pope.

15-20 days after the death or resignation of the pope, the conclave begins. A days-long event of absolute isolation, only cardinal-electors truly know what goes on during a conclave. 

According to The College of Cardinals Report, “The cardinal-electors are to refrain from all contact with the outside world during the election: no shared messages, no newspapers, no radio, no television… Benedict XVI introduced the penalty of automatic (latae sententiae) excommunication for anyone violating this norm of confidentiality.”

Any cardinal under age 80 is eligible to vote, with the number being capped at 120 voters. After a celebratory mass, the cardinal-electors enter the Sistine Chapel and do not emerge until a new pope is selected. 

During the conclave, the electors vote four times a day. The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, or USCCB, states, “The cardinals vote by secret ballot, processing one by one up to Michelangelo's fresco of the Last Judgment, saying a prayer and dropping the twice-folded ballot in a large chalice.” Ballots are burned after each inconclusive vote —traditionally with wet straw to create a cloud of black smoke.

These votes are cast until a two-thirds majority is reached. When this occurs, the ballots are burned with chemicals that create a white smoke, signaling to the world that a new pope has been elected.

So, who could be the next pope?

Currently, there are 22 cardinals who are “Papabili”: leading candidates to becoming the next pope. 

One of the most popular papal picks is Cardinal Pietro Parolin. As the Secretary of State for the Vatican, he is the most powerful candidate in the running. 

Appointed in 2014, he has very similar views to Pope Francis. The College of Cardinals Report described him as “someone expected to pursue many, if not all, of Francis’ radical reforms but in a quieter, subtler, and more diplomatic manner.”

Another frontrunner is Cardinal Péter Erdő. Erdő’s vision for the Catholic Church is more conservative than Pope Francis’s. Erdő opposes the blessing of same-sex unions and, at one point, opposed letting refugees into parishes.

The election of a new pope carries influence far beyond the Catholic Church. The political and religious views of the pope influence public opinion on controversial issues, such as divorce, contraception and LGBTQ+ rights. 

With great papacy comes great responsibility.