Marist Poll Weighs in on 2024 Presidental Race
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With election season in the United States just around the corner, the 2024 field is all but decided.
Every year, election season in the United States brings drama, surprises and public buzz. This year’s election is no different. Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, describes the Marist Poll as an important source in understanding the messy 2024 election field. Miringoff said that this poll specifically is important because “there's so many partisan politics and polls that are done by Democrat or Republican agenda.” He took care to emphasize that the Marist Poll is a neutral polling outlet.
According to the poll, 54% of Republican voters believe that the Republican party has a better chance of winning the presidency if Trump isn’t the candidate. 45% of Democrats said they thought the party had a better chance of winning if Biden isn’t the nominee.
While Biden and Trump are the current frontrunners to win their party’s nomination, these numbers indicate some uncertainty among voters on whether the current party leaders are the best path forward. Trump announced his reelection campaign in November of last year. Biden — though heavily rumored to be seeking reelection — has not yet formally announced his campaign.
Mirningoff noted that while Trump is the front runner for the Republican candidacy, there are some doubts regarding his political baggage, particularly following his indictment on March 30.
“I think it's fair to say that although he still has significant support among his core Republican base, there seems to be some measurable fall off among white evangelicals, which is a key part of his support, and also among independent voters, who are more of a swing voter in an election,” said Miringoff.
Trump’s indictment has sparked controversy among the Republican voters. Mirningoff said that “even 53% of Republicans thought he had done something wrong. Now only 10% think it was illegal and 43% say it was unethical, but not illegal. But when you look at white evangelicals, it's 26%. So you have two and a half times the number there and a total of 64% think he's done something wrong among independents.”
Results of the poll showed that Trump’s favorable rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (68%) is down from 79% last November and is his lowest favorable rating among this group since September 2016 (65%). One in four Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (25%) have an unfavorable view of the former president.
While there is plenty of controversy within the Republican party regarding the upcoming election, the Democratic nominee isn’t so clear-cut either.
Miringoff said that even though Biden is the front-runner so far, his approval rating leaves much to be desired at 43%. “But the approval rating still lags, you know, in the low forties, which I might add is in and of itself not a terrific number.”
According to the poll, Biden is doing better among Democrats than Trump with Republicans, with only 45% of the party claiming that the Democratic party would do better without Biden in office.
“The polarization is very deep and you have a whole bunch of factors at work which will ultimately shape the nomination, not the least of which is the simple age of Donald Trump and President Biden,” said Miringoff.
Myriad factors may well shake up the positioning of these candidates in the coming months, according to Miringoff.
“Polls aim to provide a sense of where things are in the dynamics of a race, less than a sense of where it's going to go.” Mirningoff said.