Questions About the War in Ukraine Answered

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a complicated, devastating event that remains ever present in the news and in the minds of people around the world. The conflict is complex, leaving many with questions about what is really going on and what it all means.

The Circle spoke to Marist College’s Dr. Juris Pupcenoks, Professor of Political Science and expert on international relations to answer the most pressing questions about the Russia-Ukraine War.

What are the motives behind Russian president Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine?

President Putin has offered several explanations for the decision to invade Ukraine, from goals of "demilitarization and de-Nazification" of Ukraine, which has a Jewish president, to baseless claims that Ukraine is seeking to establish nuclear weapons. Though, many are questioning the true intentions behind his changing explanations for the attacks.

“The biggest question is ‘why now?’ and I don’t know if anyone has a good response to it,” Dr. Pupcenoks said. Pupcenoks believes Putin could be aspiring to rebuild the legacy of the Soviet Union by regaining control of territories previously controlled by the USSR, or that Putin fears viable democracy taking form in Slavic countries.

Another rationale for the invasion may be because the North Atlantic Treaty Pact’s (NATO) expansion to the east is perceived by Putin as a threat to Russia. Ukraine has been working to join NATO for several years, which would provide the country with protection from the alliance’s mutual-defense pact. The defense pact states that an attack on one member of NATO is considered an attack on all members.

Why is Russia opposed to Ukraine joining NATO?

The NATO military alliance was established in 1949 in the aftermath of World War II. “The reason behind creating NATO was to counterbalance Russia – back then the Soviet Union,” Dr. Pupcenoks explained. According to Pupcenoks, Russia has always perceived NATO as a threat because of the alliance's origins. After the Cold War, several former members and allies of the USSR including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO, further souring the relationship between Russia and the West.

“Russia was always very suspicious of NATO,” Pupcenoks said. Though NATO and Russia attempted to improve relations between themselves, these efforts didn’t last long. When Putin gained power, tensions only grew as the leader identified NATO as an existential threat to Russia. “I really think it didn’t have to be this way,” Pupcenoks said.

What impact will the economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union and other actors have on Russia?

Though countries allied with Ukraine have so far avoided direct military involvement in the war, several powerhouse countries including the United States have hit Russia with “devastating” economic sanctions.

“Sanctions basically involve either cutting off trade and investments or putting restrictions on who can do trade and investment,” Dr. Pupcenoks said. Many of the sanctions against Russia involve banning business with Russian banks and entities, and freezing Russian assets that are tucked away overseas. Freezing these “rainy day funds” limits Russia’s economic options and blocks them from doing things like buying their own currency to keep its value from plummeting – which is already happening with the Ruble.

Sanctions are also being levied against Russian oil and gas sectors, though world leaders have been hesitant to put full import bans in place because of the global economic consequences that could follow. Though Russia only produces about 10% of the world’s oil, gas prices are already skyrocketing after the U.S. banned imports of Russian energy and European countries pledged to gradually follow suit. Russia is heavily dependent on its oil and gas industry, so strong sanctions in these areas could cripple the country's economy, leaving it with less money to pump into the invasion of Ukraine.

How are Russian citizens responding to the war in Ukraine?

Russia is notorious for its misinformation campaigns and state-controlled media outlets. Many are questioning how much Russian citizens truly know about the conflict, and if they have any real power to oppose the actions of their government. “They don’t,” said Dr. Pupcenoks. “They really don’t.”

According to Pupcenoks, independent media in Russia has been “wiped out” by government actions that essentially make criticizing the government illegal. This makes it incredibly difficult for citizens to find credible information that reports the awful realities of the war. Russian media often serves as a mouthpiece for the government, reporting inaccurate information painting Ukraine as the aggressor in the conflict and claiming that Russian soldiers are entering the region as peacemakers to save people from alleged genocide, among other falsities.

Before many Western journalists fled the tumultuous region, reports surfaced that Russian citizens were being arrested for protesting against the war. Thousands of Russian citizens have been detained for demonstrations opposing the government, and an independent Russian human rights agency claims that protestors are also being beaten and tortured for their efforts. 

Many Russians remain unaware of the truth behind the war, and those that know the truth are punished for speaking out.