Marist Poll Findings on NY Midterms
Kathy Hochul being sworn in as 57th Governor of the State of New York in 2021. Credit NY Senate on Flikr
With only a week left until the midterm elections, the latest Marist Poll on the New York Governor’s race found that incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul leads her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points.
Prominent politicians have started traveling to New York during the past week to endorse the candidate of their party. In an effort to sway potential voters, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis backed Zeldin at a “Get Out the Vote” rally last Saturday night in Suffolk County. Then on Monday, Republican Gov. Glenn Younkin joined Zelden in Westchester for another voter rally.
“Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin are prime examples of far-right Republicans who have worked to roll back abortion rights and bring more guns into their communities,” Hochul said in a press release. “Lee Zeldin is cut from the same extremist cloth. If elected, Zeldin has promised to follow the same blueprint for revoking our rights and making our streets less safe.”
The Buffalo News editorial board announced its endorsement of Hochul on Saturday. They praised her response to the Buffalo mass shooting, the state budget and her focus on combating crime. Even more prominent was the vocal support Hochul received from former president Barack Obama during a one-minute radio ad over the weekend.
“My friend, Governor Kathy Hochul, is the best person for the job," Obama said in the radio message. “Kathy knows how to get things done. She’s a strong leader who has met the moment and fought for you.”
Although New York is widely known as a blue state, Hochul’s lead over Zeldin narrows to eight points among those in the poll who said they will definitely vote. Democratic incumbent Chuck Schumer has a double-digit lead in the U.S. Senate race over Republican Joe Pinion. Among voters who say they will definitely vote on election day, Schumer leads the race by 13 points.
“Although Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate lead in very blue New York, the race for governor still bears watching,” Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion said.
While Hochul is ahead in the Marist Poll results, only 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of her. Voters are also more firmly committed to voting for Zeldin (74%) than Hochul (62%). However, only 36% of people have a favorable impression of Zelden and he has lower name recognition than Hochul.
“Republicans say they are more likely to vote, enthusiasm for Zeldin among his supporters exceeds Hochul’s and any shift to crime in the closing weeks is likely to benefit Zeldin,” Miringoff said.
According to Marist Poll results, New Yorkers' top issues include inflation and preserving democracy. While 28% of New York residents said inflation is their top issue heading into the midterms, a close 24% said preserving democracy is their top issue. In third was crime (18), then abortion (14%), health care (8%) and finally immigration (7%).
Most New York residents have confidence in the election process. However, Democrats (90%) are nearly twice as likely as Republicans (47%) to trust New York’s election system. Another issue split mainly along party lines is President Joe Biden’s approval rating. Only 48% of New Yorkers approve of how Biden is performing in office while 49%, including 16% of Democrats, disapprove.
As midterm week approaches, both Hochul and Zelden will continue to produce campaign content and receive endorsements as they try to get out the vote. Democrats are twice as likely to say they will vote at an early voting location. Nevertheless, most New York voters (71%) plan to hit the polls in person on election day to decide their future governor.