Election Night Update: Race Too Close to Call in Key States

At midnight on Tuesday, New York Times projections gave former Vice President Joe Biden 213 electoral votes and President Donald Trump 145; however, many states continue to be too early to call, and it is a tight race.

Trump and Biden ended the election night at midnight, securing expected early wins in safe states for their parties. All eyes are fiercely on the contested battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which –– as of 5 a.m. Wednesday morning –– had not been called for either candidate. 

As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Biden secured a projected 227 electoral votes versus Trump’s 213. The high percentage of mail-in ballots cast in this year’s election amid the coronavirus pandemic means that vote counting may extend into the coming days, with many states like Pennsylvania and Michigan expected to lag in ballot counting.

Trump’s Election Night Performance:

President Trump is leading in Florida by roughly three points, with approximately 98% of estimated votes reported. He is holding key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. However, it remains too close to call. Among the swing states, Biden is holding slight leads in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. 

Biden’s Election Night Performance:

Media outlets projected the following states to have a blue turnout: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington. Thus far, Trump has posted victories in Republican-dominated states: Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Swing State Status:

Trump has a strong voter turnout amongst the Latino community and working-class white voters, specifically in Florida, where his gains in Miami-Dade county, in particular, helped to solidify his lead. Polling averages had indicated a tight presidential race in Florida, and Biden’s underperformance in key counties has contributed to Trump’s current lead in the hotly contested swing state. 

In Arizona, Biden has the potential to flip a state previously won by Trump in 2016. Biden is currently leading with 51.8% percent of votes to Trump’s 46.8%, with 82% of estimated votes already counted. In 2016, Trump won Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes by a margin of 3.5 points.

Current estimates suggest that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina could decide this tight race. Though Trump currently leads in some deciding states, delays in counting mail-in ballots may result in Biden gains in the coming days. Since delays in the postal system may result in mail-in votes not being counted until the days following election night, initial results out of swing states could be misleading.

As the states that will likely decide this historic election remain too close to call, uncertainties about the next four years remain high among voters who await conclusive results. Biden spoke live on Tuesday expressing confidence about a democratic win this year. 

"We knew this was going to go long … We feel good about where we are. We really do," Biden said at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware.

As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Biden secured a projected 227 electoral votes versus Trump’s 213. Illustration by Emily Stellakis