Election Night Forecast: What Should Americans Expect?
Shortly after the polls close, the winning presidential candidate in each state can be determined –– but with unique voting circumstances due to the pandemic, declaring victory this year will be fraught with complexities.
And as of now, it is a close race.
Source: "American flag and vintage clock with calendar showing 2020 election date" by wuestenigel is licensed under CC BY 2.0
A state is called on election night by a major media outlet when they believe a candidate has an unbeatable lead in that state and that the other candidate is unable to surpass them in votes.
Many states are primarily using mail in-voting and early voting this year; as a result, some states will not be called on Election Day. Election night may include several delays, with particular states requiring vote processing to wait until Election Day, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Many states quickly expanded mail-in voting because of the pandemic, delaying the counting of ballots and organization of candidate counts.
During the primaries in the spring and summer, some states took several days to count all of the votes and process which party won. New York processed 94% of the ballots on primary day within a few hours of the polls closing; however, counting the final 6% of votes took more than ten days. Many races were too close to call, and the winners remained unknown for several weeks.
Current Status of Battle Ground States
The three battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia also took several days to release their preliminary results. These states will play a pivotal role in the election’s outcome, and the likelihood that they will be called on election night is slim.
The four crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina have tentatively extended the deadline for mail-in ballots, delaying the election results. Recently, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive by Nov. 6 and be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day. In Michigan, votes can be counted as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 2 and received by Nov. 17. In Wisconsin, ballots can be counted that are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 9. Finally, North Carolina reached a tentative court agreement that would allow votes to be processed as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12.
The legislation involving mail-in voting in these swing states is not final and can still be overruled; however, these rules facilitate voters submitting mail-in ballots in these states. Media outlets will most likely be unable to declare a winner in these four states on election night. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, there’s a 56% chance that one of these states will decide the presidency. If these states are not called on election night, the presidency will not be called either.
According to the Pew Research Center, 82% of Americans have confidence in their chosen news outlets to be accurate in their calls. Sixty percent of adults say that they will follow the results on a major national TV network, such as ABC, NBC or CBS, and 42% are planning to follow the results using social media. Eighty percent of Americans plan to follow the presidential election results after the polls close on Election Day very closely or somewhat closely.
The nation awaits Election Day, one that will test Americans’ patience and confidence in the electoral process.